Game of Runs Ends in 2 Point Heartbreaker

Basketball is often referred to as “a game of runs.” We investigate the appropriateness of

this claim using data from the full NBA 2016-17 season, comparing actual longest runs of

scoring events to what long run theory predicts under the assumption that team “momentum” is

not present. We provide several different variations of the analysis. Our results consistently

indicate that the lengths of longest runs in NBA games are no longer than those that would occur

naturally when scoring events are generated by a random process, rather than one that is

influenced by “momentum.”

 

 

To be sure, this conclusion–that basketball is not a game of runs–suggests that Professor Schilling was not in attendance at our game against Hamden Hall. This game between the Hornets and the Owls was decidedly one of momentum and runs.

 

For the second game in a row, our team faced a foe whose stature cast shadows on the hardwood. They had 7th Graders, but our desire to build on our victory vs. Pine Point, and to defend our home court led to an inspired effort on the floor. 

 

In the first quarter, the Owls were off with a bang. Despite the size disparity, Sam Collins started the scoring hot with 4 points, followed closely by a swooping basket from Kyle Jacobson. Harper Merrill finished up the first quarter splitting a pair of free throws, and the group led 7-0. 

 

Of course, the trio of scorers couldn’t do it alone. With Gideon McDonough and Cam McNamara running the point, the passes wizzed and whipped to waiting wings Lucas Ferguson-Cormier, Jake Svitila, Logan Maloney, Ben Nathanson and Ari Croog-Zehavi. From there, balls were inbounded and bounced to the block where Mason Brown again established himself solidly alongside Sam Gagliardi and Edward Barney. 

 

The second quarter, however, saw a shift in energy as the “game of runs” set its course against the Owls. Hamden Hall scored six quick points to pull within 3. Another swish by Kyle Jacobsen extended it to 5, but the run continued for the Hornets with 4 more quick hoops to pull ahead, ending the half with an 11-9 deficit for the Owls.

 

The second half started with a continued run from the lengthy Hornets who put the pedal down, scoring 10 points to the 4 netted by the Owls. Kyle again grabbed himself a bucket off an offensive rebound, and Cam McNamara notched a deuce in the scoring column with a short 10 footer from the left wing. 

 

Down 20-13 and heading into the final quarter, the team realized there were only two things they could control: their attitudes and the way they hustled. And wow, did they ever do both. With substitutions coming on fast and furious, Coach McDonough unleashed the players to a full court press that was both frantic and focused. The result? Another 4 point quarter for Sam Collins, 2 more for each Kyle Jacobson and Cam McNamara.

 

 

 

 

A lone basket from the post was all the Hornets could muster in the 4th, but that was all it took. In the final minute, the Owls fought valiantly, trying to foul intentionally to stop the clock. With 3 seconds left, down 24-21, Harper Merrill was fouled and went to the line. He made the first, but missed the second in hopes of an offensive rebound to even the score. Unfortunately, the ball bounced off a number of hands and was never corralled as the horn sounded, ending the game with a 2 point loss. 

 

Coach McDonough summed it up well. “Folks often say that basketball is a game of runs. We outscored them in the first and fourth quarters with a score of 16-2, but they outscored us in the second and third quarters 22-6. At some point, it just becomes a math problem…whose runs did more damage, and today we just got nudged by a basket.” He waxed poetically, though, about the team’s effort: “Everyone gave 100% in attitude and hustle today. This was our second straight game being the much smaller team. I know everyone became a better basketball player by the end of this game.”

 

And it’s true. Whether basketball is always a game of runs or not, on this day it was. 

 

Scoring was led by Sam Collins (8), Kyle Jacobson (8), Cam McNamara (4), Harper Merrill (2). The Owls get a few days off before heading to IDS to face the Coyotes next week.